NOTE: The SuperSMITH package includes WinSMITH™ Weibull
software, WinSMITH Visual Software, WinSMITH YBath software, The New Weibull
Handbook© by Dr. Robert B. Abernethy, plus the PlayTIME™ tutorial booklet.
2-DAY BASIC WORKSHOP
A Weibull / Lognormal introduction. Brings the novice up to
working level. Covers analysis of good data, messy data, forecasting, optimum
replacements, inspections, grouped data, Weibayes, test planning, and
reliability growth modeling. Training
includes hours of hands-on problem solving with SuperSMITH software to analyze
example data found in the PlayTIME™ Computer Tutorial for SuperSMITH.
2 DAY ADVANCED WORKSHOP
Extends coverage to alternate fitting solutions such as
maximum likelihood estimation (mle), distribution comparison, system and
mixture solutions, confidence, significant differences, and related models.
More time is included for student hands-on problem solving using SuperSMITH.
There is additional time for details 
concerning
simulation models or for follow-up consulting on data brought by each student.
3 DAY COMPLETE WORKSHOP
Dr. Bob Abernethy’s time-tested complete workshop for most
applications. From the beginning to the end with case studies for Automotive,
Aerospace, Electric Power Plant, Chemical
& Petro-Chemical Plant, Medical, and every type of commercial product
or service. Coverage of the complete New Weibull Handbook(c) by Dr. Bob.
4 DAY COMPLETE WORKSHOP WITH SIMULATION OVERVIEW (BASIC + ADVANCED +
SIMULATION)
The complete workshop including
both 2-Day sessions above. There is a discount for hosting the advanced
workshop immediately after the basic workshop for the same people.
WORKSHOPS
HELD AT YOUR SITE
DAY 1 BASIC
·
Weibull analysis overview
·
23-minute video short course
·
How to do a Weibull analysis
·
Interpretation of Good Weibulls
·
Interpretation of Bad Weibulls – Cusps, dog-legs,
curves, t0, Lognormal
·
Extremely small sample analysis…what are the risks?
·
Suspensions & sample size effects on
uncertainty
·
Predicting failures with and without renewal
·
Case studies…customer usage…maintenance
planning…goodness-of-fit with the ccc’s and the new pve%
·
Crow-AMSAA reliability growth modeling…for tracking
development testing and repairable systems maintainability
·
Weibull Experiments…wire data…classwork problems and
solutions
DAY 2 BASIC
·
Experimental wire data distribution analysis
·
Optimal replacement intervals
·
Weibull analysis…improving accuracy, smaller
samples, Weibayes
·
Weibayes substantiation tests…Have we fixed the
problem? Zero-failure testing, sudden death tests
·
PlayTIME™ with SuperSMITH™ software…hands-on
computer experience solving problems…students may bring their own data for
analysis with the software
DAY
3 (DAY 1 ADVANCED) CONFIDENCE + MODELS
·
Maximum likelihood Weibull theory and application
·
Rank regression (rr) vs. Maximum likelihood
Estimation (mle)…advantages/disadvantages
·
Alternate types of data … inspection and grouped
with probit solutions
·
Interval mle
·
Confidence intervals
·
Are two Weibull data sets significantly different?
·
Additional PlayTIME tutorial work
·
Dauser shift
·
PlayTIME with SuperSMITH
·
Time for all students
to analyze their own data and problems
·
Computer tutorial with
typical problems
DAY 4 (DAY 2 ADVANCED) YOUR DATA
·
Binomial & Poisson solutions
·
The exponential related to Poisson and Weibull
·
Kaplan-Meier survival for warranty analysis
·
System models – independent modes
·
Warranty analysis
·
Crow-AMSAA details
·
Monte Carlo simulaton…History and Principles
·
Monte Carlo simulation solutions
·
Example: The Cliff Walker
·
Transforming random numbers into real variables,
like time to failure
·
Example: Ssystem simulation with renewal
·
Case Studies: Reliability, maintainability, safety
systems models – dependent modes
·
PC hands-on simulation
·
Reliability and maintainability with RAPTOR and
MONTE
·
Students receive copies of simulator software
·
And/Or time to analyze your data
1 DAY REFRESHER
·
The New Weibull Handbook latest edition
·
Failure forecasting (risk analysis)
o
By part, component, system
o
A month, a year, 5 years, 10 years ahead
o
Labor costs forecasting
o
Spare parts forecasting
·
Optimal renewal interval new capabilities
·
Crow-AMSAA
modeling updates
·
Tracking fleets for maintainability
·
Classic bi-Weibull and YBath solutions
·
New cost-effective test planning
·
Inspection data…new methods
·
Monte Carlo research…& surprises
·
Kaplan Meier survival analysis
·
Inspection data
·
Warranty analysis
·
Modified likelihood ratio tests for multiple data
sets
·
The latest SuperSMITH software
·
Hands-on computer tutorial with your own problems
and your own data
LECTURER(S)
Wes Fulton is founder and CEO of Fulton Findings™ and the
creator of WinSMITH™ Weibull, WinSMITH Visual, and several special programs for
statistical research such as MonteCarloSMITH™ and BiWeibullSMITH™ software
packages. He has 16 years experience as Program Engineer for Garrett AiResearch
aerospace systems. He supervised development and production engineering of
aircraft flight control projects, and manueuvering fly-by-wire actuation
systems. He co-patented the multi-fuseable shaft (a high-performance
drive-train device) and is a member of ASME, ASQ, IEEE, and SAE. A lecturer in
statistical modeling, he developed the Fulton Factor used in set comparison and
originated the concept of assurance that equates reliability and confidence.
AND/OR
Dr. Bob Abernethy authored the first handbook for Weibull Analysis and
now he self-publishes THE NEW WEIBULL HANDBOOK(C) which is the de-facto
world-wide standard for Weibull Engineering. He has over 30 years of experience
with Pratt & Whitney Aerospace and was in charge of the Reliability,
Maintainability, and Supportability department there. He developed many special
methods for Weibull analysis including Abernethy Risk analysis for forecasting,
the reduced bias adjustment (RBA) for small samples, and Weibayes estimation
for small samples and for test-substantiation. Dr. Aberrnethy is a member of
and has been recognized with high honors by several statistical, engineering,
and quality organizations too numerous to mention here. He also has some
landmark engineering patents in his name. One such patent is for the engines
that power the fastest aircraft in the world for over 30 years, the SR-71
Blackbird.