NOTE: The SuperSMITH™ package includes SuperSMITH Weibull
software, SuperSMITH Visual Software, SuperSMITH YBath™ software, The New
Weibull Handbook© by Dr. Robert B. Abernethy, plus the PlayTIME™ tutorial
booklet.
2-DAY BASIC WORKSHOP
A Weibull / Lognormal introduction. Brings the novice up to
working level. Covers analysis of good data, messy data, forecasting, optimum replacements,
inspections, grouped data, Weibayes, test planning, and reliability growth
modeling. Training includes hours of
hands-on problem solving with SuperSMITH software to analyze example data found
in the PlayTIME™ Computer Tutorial for SuperSMITH.
2 DAY ADVANCED
WORKSHOP
Extends coverage to alternate fitting solutions such as
maximum likelihood estimation (mle), distribution comparison, system and
mixture solutions, confidence, significant differences, and related models.
More time is included for student hands-on problem solving using SuperSMITH.
There is additional time for details concerning simulation models or for
follow-up consulting on data brought by each student.
3 DAY COMPLETE
WORKSHOP
Dr. Bob Abernethy’s time-tested complete workshop for most
applications. From the beginning to the end with case studies for Automotive,
Aerospace, Electric Power Plant, Chemical
& Petro-Chemical Plant, Medical, and every type of commercial
product or service. Coverage of the complete New Weibull Handbook(c) by Dr.
Bob.
4 DAY COMPLETE
WORKSHOP WITH SIMULATION OVERVIEW (BASIC + ADVANCED + SIMULATION)
The complete workshop including
both 2-Day sessions above. There is a discount for hosting the advanced
workshop immediately after the basic workshop for the same people.
WORKSHOPS
HELD AT YOUR SITE
DAY 1 BASIC
·
Weibull
analysis overview
·
23-minute video short course
·
How to do a Weibull analysis
·
Interpretation of Good Weibulls
·
Interpretation of Bad Weibulls
– Cusps, dog-legs, curves, t0, Lognormal
·
Extremely small sample
analysis…what are the risks?
·
Suspensions & sample size
effects on uncertainty
·
Predicting failures with and
without renewal
·
Case studies…customer
usage…maintenance planning…goodness-of-fit with the ccc’s and the new pve%
·
Crow-AMSAA reliability growth
modeling…for tracking development testing and repairable systems
maintainability
·
Weibull Experiments…wire
data…classwork problems and solutions
DAY 2 BASIC
·
Experimental wire data
distribution analysis
·
Optimal replacement intervals
·
Weibull analysis…improving
accuracy, smaller samples, Weibayes
·
Weibayes substantiation
tests…Have we fixed the problem? Zero-failure testing, sudden death tests
·
PlayTIME™ with SuperSMITH™
software…hands-on computer experience solving problems…students may bring their
own data for analysis with the software
DAY
3 (DAY 1 ADVANCED) CONFIDENCE + MODELS
·
Maximum likelihood Weibull
theory and application
·
Rank regression (rr) vs. Maximum
likelihood Estimation (mle)…advantages/disadvantages
·
Alternate types of data …
inspection and grouped with probit solutions
·
Interval mle
·
Confidence intervals
·
Are two Weibull data sets
significantly different?
·
Additional PlayTIME tutorial
work
·
Dauser shift
·
PlayTIME with SuperSMITH
·
Time
for all students to analyze their own data and problems
·
Computer
tutorial with typical problems
DAY 4 (DAY 2 ADVANCED) YOUR DATA
·
Binomial & Poisson
solutions
·
The exponential related to
Poisson and Weibull
·
Kaplan-Meier survival for
warranty analysis
·
System models – independent
modes
·
Warranty analysis
·
Crow-AMSAA details
·
Monte
Carlo simulaton…History and Principles
·
Monte Carlo simulation
solutions
·
Example: The Cliff Walker
·
Transforming random numbers
into real variables, like time to failure
·
Example: Ssystem simulation
with renewal
·
Case Studies: Reliability,
maintainability, safety systems models – dependent modes
·
PC hands-on simulation
·
Reliability and maintainability
with RAPTOR and MONTE
·
Students receive copies of simulator
software
·
And/Or time to analyze your
data
1 DAY REFRESHER
·
The
New Weibull Handbook latest edition
·
Failure forecasting (risk
analysis)
o
By part, component, system
o
A month, a year, 5 years, 10
years ahead
o
Labor costs forecasting
o
Spare parts forecasting
·
Optimal renewal interval new
capabilities
·
Crow-AMSAA modeling updates
·
Tracking fleets for
maintainability
·
Classic bi-Weibull and YBath
solutions
·
New cost-effective test
planning
·
Inspection data…new methods
·
Monte Carlo research…&
surprises
·
Kaplan Meier survival analysis
·
Inspection data
·
Warranty analysis
·
Modified likelihood ratio tests
for multiple data sets
·
The latest SuperSMITH software
·
Hands-on computer tutorial with
your own problems and your own data
MAIN LECTURER(S) EXCEPT FOREIGN LANGUAGE AND OTHER AUTHORIZED
PRESENTERS
Wes Fulton is founder and CEO of Fulton Findings™ and the
creator of SuperSMITH™ Weibull, SuperSMITH Visual, and several special programs
for statistical research such as MonteCarloSMITH™ and BiWeibullSMITH™ software
packages. He has 16 years experience as Program Engineer for Garrett AiResearch
aerospace systems. He supervised development and production engineering of
aircraft flight control projects, and manueuvering fly-by-wire actuation
systems. He co-patented the multi-fuseable shaft (a high-performance drive-train
device) and is a member of ASME, ASQ, IEEE, and SAE. A lecturer in statistical
modeling, he developed the Fulton Factor used in set comparison and originated
the concept of assurance that equates reliability and confidence.
AND/OR
Dr. Bob Abernethy authored the first handbook for Weibull Analysis and
now he self-publishes THE NEW WEIBULL HANDBOOK(C) which is the de-facto
world-wide standard for Weibull Engineering. He has over 30 years of experience
with Pratt & Whitney Aerospace and was in charge of the Reliability,
Maintainability, and Supportability department there. He developed many special
methods for Weibull analysis including Abernethy Risk analysis for forecasting,
the reduced bias adjustment (RBA) for small samples, and Weibayes estimation for
small samples and for test-substantiation. Dr. Aberrnethy is a member of and
has been recognized with high honors by several statistical, engineering, and
quality organizations too numerous to mention here. He also has some landmark
engineering patents in his name. One such patent is for the engines that power
the fastest aircraft in the world for over 30 years, the SR-71 Blackbird.
ALL LECTURERS INCLUDING FOREIGN LANGUAGE AND OTHER AUTHORIZED PRESENTATIONS
Please click here for a
complete list of Authorized Instructors.